Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former GOP Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are polling neck-and-neck in the New Jersey gubernatorial race just days out from the election, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released on Thursday showed Sherrill barely edging out Ciattarelli in the race to succeed outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.). Sherrill has the support of 49 percent of likely voters to Ciattarelli’s 48 percent, with 2 percent undecided. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, the two are essentially tied in the race.
When undecideds are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Sherrill’s support grows to 50 percent, while Ciattarelli receives 48 percent. Even factoring in undecided voters, however, the two are still polling within the margin of error, essentially tying them.
The New Jersey gubernatorial race has been a nail-biter, with polling largely showing Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by single digits. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released in September found the two tied at 43 percent, while a separate 11 percent were undecided.
Both candidates are trying to defy political headwinds. New Jersey hasn’t elected a candidate of the same political party for governor since 1961, a trend Sherrill is looking to overcome next week. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli is trying to put enough distance between himself and President Trump, whose approval rating, like Murphy’s, is low in the state.
New Jersey in recent years has proven that Democrats can’t take the state for granted. Murphy narrowly beat Ciattarelli in 2021 by 3 percentage points, while former Vice President Harris won the state in November by about 6 points.
The latest Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey, similar to the September survey, shows that while Trump enjoys a higher approval rating than Murphy in the Garden State, he also has a higher disapproval rating than Murphy.
The Thursday survey found Trump with a 45 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating. The poll found Murphy with a 34 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating.
More than half of respondents — 52 percent — said economy was the most important issue facing the state, followed by 14 percent who said threats to democracy and 11 percent who said housing affordability.
The latest polling also points to some potential warning signs for Sherrill among Black and Hispanic/Latino voters. While the survey shows the New Jersey congresswoman seeing a higher percentage of support among the two groups compared to the September survey — 74 percent and 56 percent respectively in this latest survey — she’s winning both groups by a smaller margin in this latest survey compared to September.
In the September survey, Sherrill won Black voters by 57 percentage points over Ciattarelli and 21 percentage points over Ciattarelli among Hispanic and Latino voters.
In Thursday’s survey, Sherrill is winning Black voters by over 50 points and Hispanic and Latino voters by 15 points.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a release there’s also a stark gender gap between the candidates.
“Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Kimball said. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey was conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28 1,000 respondents who have already voted or are very likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Source: The Hill
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