President Trump is facing growing pressure over his handling of the economy as inflation rises, the job market weakens and American exporters suffer backlash from his trade agenda.
Federal data set to be released Friday is expected to show annual inflation hitting 3 percent for the first time since the Biden administration — a full percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. Economists are projecting the consumer price index (CPI) report to show higher inflation in September largely due to climbing energy and food prices — two of the hardest areas for Americans to cut costs.
Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, prices have risen steadily since the second half of the year, largely in line with when the president cemented his tariff agenda. Annual inflation as measured by the CPI dropped from 3 percent in January to 2.4 percent in March, but spiked back up to 2.9 percent by August.
Businesses are also hiring far fewer workers than in recent years, pushing the unemployment rate higher and millions of Americans into deeper financial pain.
The combination has brought Trump’s ratings on the economy down to historic lows, according to a new poll.
Just 38 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, the lowest level he’s received since February 2017. Fifty-seven percent of voters said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy.
“With a nearly 20-point gap between approval and disapproval on President Trump’s handling of the economy, it’s a low watermark for a president who promised a vibrant and muscular economy,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.
What we know about the economy right now
A clear picture of the U.S. economy is difficult to paint after three weeks of a government shutdown, which has halted nearly all federal data collection.
The September CPI report is the only federal economic data set to be collected and released after federal funding lapsed Oct. 1. The shutdown came two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was set to release the September jobs report, which was expected to show another mediocre month of employment gains.
The White House said it was essential to bring back BLS staffers for the September CPI report so federal officials could calculate the cost-of-living adjustment for federal benefits.
Otherwise, economists and policymakers are reliant on private-sector data and anecdotes to gauge the economy until the shutdown ends.
“The economic impact of the government shutdown and its disruption to data collection has not yet been fully felt,” wrote Stephen Kates, financial analyst at Bankrate, in a Tuesday analysis.
“Federal layoffs or the absence of backpay would drag down spending and worsen labor conditions, especially in the local areas most affected,” he continued. “The longer the shutdown continues, the larger our blind spot will be.”
The data available to experts shows high-earning U.S. households keeping the economy afloat through steady consumer spending, fueled largely by a record-breaking run in the stock market.
But the costs of Trump’s trade battles are piling up for businesses, which have slashed hiring amid the uncertainty created by the president’s ever-changing tariff rates and trade terms.
U.S. job growth has slowed from an average of 150,000 per month at the start of 2025 to just 25,000 by August, according to analysis from Elsie Peng, research economist at Goldman Sachs.
Peng said a combination of “slower immigration, reduced government hiring and federal contract funding, and elevated uncertainty” are costing the U.S. 100,000 jobs each month.
While the higher costs of tariffs themselves may only be playing a limited role, Peng wrote, uncertainty created by constant changes in trade policy appear to be holding companies back from hiring.
Even some architects of Trump’s economic agenda have acknowledged the toll such uncertainty is taking on businesses.
“There’s now more downside risks than there was a week ago, and I think it’s incumbent upon us as policymakers to recognize that should get reflected in policy,” said Fed board member Stephen Miran, who is on leave from chairing the White House Council of Economic Advisers, at a CNBC event last week.
Senators’ beef with Trump’s Argentina bailout
At the same time, Trump’s decision to bail out the Argentinian government is drawing intense bipartisan backlash, especially as U.S. farmers and ranchers struggle to sell their own goods abroad.
The Trump administration has rushed to bolster the Argentine economy in an effort to support Argentinian President Javier Milei and his party in the nation’s upcoming election.
The administration’s “America First economic agenda has already provided over $2 trillion in tax cuts for middle class Americans, lower taxes and less red tape for small businesses, and the strength on the world stage to both counter our adversaries and support our allies,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday statement.
The Treasury Department finalized this week a $20 billion plan to support Argentina’s economy though the currency markets, and Trump said Argentina could receive further financial support if Milei’s party succeeds in the elections.
Trump’s Argentina bailout drew predictable outrage from Democratic lawmakers, who have accused the president of prioritizing foreign allies over the American people.
But even Republican senators have taken issue with Trump’s promise to buy beef exports from Argentina to bring down domestic prices as American ranchers suffer.
Beef prices are up 16 percent this year as American producers attempt to make ends meet despite a steep drop in the sizes of their herds.
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said Monday she expressed “deep concerns” to the White House about Trump’s plan, which she said would do nothing to help consumers while hurting ranchers in her state.
“The U.S. has safe, reliable beef, and it is the one bright spot in our struggling ag economy,” Fischer wrote Tuesday on the social platform X.
“Nebraska’s ranchers cannot afford to have the rug pulled out from under them when they’re just getting ahead or simply breaking even. I strongly encourage the Trump administration to focus on trade deals that benefit our ag producers—not imports that will do more harm than good.”
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said he’s heard concerns from “hundreds” of ranchers in his state, which he shared with Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
“Opening the market to even more foreign beef, which American consumers cannot differentiate because of current labeling rules, would only exacerbate the problem and hurt domestic producers. Our producers will compete all day long, but only if there is a level playing field,” Rounds wrote Tuesday on X.
Trump, however, dug in on his plan Wednesday afternoon, insisting on Truth Social that “The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States.”
“If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told The Hill in a statement preceding Trump’s Truth Social post the administration “is focused on reversing a prolonged decrease in the supply of live cattle by growing American cattle herds with robust action to deliver disaster relief to cattle country, support new ranchers, and reduce risk for cattle producers.”
Source: The Hill