Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said he believes the Republican Party is beginning to move away from President Trump, citing pockets of dissent within the party and the recent poor performances of GOP candidates in downballot races.
“In politics, migrations rarely happen all at once. They start quietly — one or two members of a herd moving toward safer ground while the rest pretend not to notice. But once the wind really changes, the movement becomes unmistakable,” Flake wrote in an op-ed published in The Washington Post on Thursday.
“I believe that a migration has begun within the Republican Party,” he continued.
Flake, who was fiercely critical of Trump during his first administration, said he sees the “first signs” of fractions emerging in the GOP.
He pointed to Republican senators’ opposition to Trump’s call to end the filibuster. He also noted Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) vocal criticism of Trump’s tariff policies and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) public break with the president on several issues.
While Flake noted Greene’s independent streak might not last forever, “even a temporary defection signals to others that it can be done,” and “It gives cover to those who have privately questioned the direction of the party but have been unwilling to say so aloud.”
“The political climate that once rewarded absolute loyalty to the president is shifting,” he continued. “The Democratic landslide in Tuesday’s off-year elections will only add momentum to that.”
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Flake said candidates will have a choice of whether to align with Trump on his economic policies, including the president’s tariffs, which Flake sees as unpopular, “Or they can begin the slow, necessary work of reclaiming the party of free markets and global engagement.”
“The midterms, now less than a year away, clearly favor the Democrats — particularly in the House, where they are poised to take the majority,” Flake wrote. “And if that happens, it will not be because Democrats have suddenly found the perfect message. It will be because the president’s economic policies are fundamentally misaligned with both conservative principles and economic reality.”
Flake noted that many of “Trump’s imitators have not fared well” when trying to emulate the president’s approach to politics, even when Trump is on the ballot. He pointed to races in his home state of Arizona in the past few years as a prime example of that phenomenon, noting the state now has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor.
He predicted Republicans will continue to struggle in downballot races and urged his party to return to its roots of traditional conservatism.
“The GOP cannot sustain itself indefinitely as a movement defined by isolationism abroad and populism at home,” Flake wrote. “Those instincts may thrill a rally crowd, but they’re corrosive to governing. Eventually, voters tire of performative anger and want competence.”
“What we’re witnessing, then, is not merely a tactical adjustment but the early stages of a re-realignment,” he said. “Politics abhors a vacuum, and as the president’s hold weakens, space will open for traditional conservatives — those who still believe in limited government, open markets and an America that leads through example rather than intimidation.”
Flake urged Republican lawmakers to seize opportunities to demonstrate independence, noting the “path back won’t be easy,” but “vulnerable Republicans will come to see that silence is more costly than dissent.”
“The migration won’t be a stampede. It will unfold vote by vote, district by district. Some will move out of conviction, others out of political necessity. Motives will vary, but the movement is happening,” Flake wrote.
“And in the end, after enough of the herd has made the journey, the GOP will look up and find itself in a new, old place — one rooted in optimism, free trade and the conviction that America leads best when it engages rather than retreats.”
Flake left the Senate in 2019, after opting not to seek reelection after his first six-year term. He became known in the Senate as one of the most vocal GOP opponents of the former president and suffered from poor approval ratings through the last end of his term.
He endorsed President Biden in 2020 and served as Biden’s ambassador to Turkey until stepping down in 2024. He endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris in her 2024 bid for president.
The Republican National Committee dismissed Flake’s argument, pointing to Trump’s 2024 victory over the Democrats.
“We’re not taking political advice from failed senator Jeff Flake who quit and then took a job from Joe Biden — a President who could barely finish a sentence, let alone lead a country,” RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels said in a statement to The Hill.
“The real ‘migration’ is the voters who left the Democrat Party because of Biden’s broken economy and joined the MAGA coalition that actually delivers results,” she continued.
Source: The Hill